4. COMPLEX CAUSES

The causes of this unprecedented situation are certainly complex.[⁷] J-Cl. Chesnais, of the Institut National d'Études Démographiques (Paris), has analyzed them in detail for the above-mentioned meeting of demographic experts. Some of the causes are easily spotted. The marriage rate, in an environment which is unfavorable to matrimony, has significantly dropped, and thus fewer people are marrying. The mean age at which women first give birth has sharply increased, and continues to do so. Labour Codes do not facilitate the desire of women to integrate harmoniously their family life and professional activity. The lack of true family policies in these countries which, nevertheless, are directly affected by the demographic decrease, explains why families cannot actually have the number of children which they would like to have: it is estimated that the difference between the number of children that European women desire and the number they really have is around 0.6 child/woman.[⁸]

J-Cl. Chesnais concludes his report about the causes of the fertility decrease by introducing a new element in demography, which has been rather neglected by demographers: the ratio between pessimism and hope experienced by populations. According to this author, a return to a higher fertility rate in those countries whose fertility is declining at the present can be expected only if there is a change in the "mood" in these countries, a shift from present pessimism to a state of mind which could be compared to that of the "baby-boom" era, during the era of post-World War II reconstruction.[⁹]

Apart from these causes based on living conditions and on sociocultural changes in industrially developed countries, other factors directly link demographic decrease to the human will, and therefore to human responsibility. These are the methods and policies of voluntary limitation of births. The spread of chemical contraception techniques and often the legalization of abortion have been established, while, at the same time, policies in favour of welcoming new lives have been weakened.

In recent years, mass sterilization, already mentioned, has been added to these causes. One can recall the massive, scandalous campaigns of male and female sterilization in India in 1954 and 1976, leading to the overthrow of Mrs. Gandhi's government.[¹⁰] In Brazil and in Mexico, 40 percent of the women using a fertility-control method are sterilized.

At the present moment, the media is reporting the sterilization campaign carried out last year in Peru by the services of the Public Health Department. This has provoked a worldwide reaction of indignation.[¹¹] Public health-care employees[¹²] put "pressure" on women who were mostly illiterate and not informed about the real purpose of their "operation".[¹³] These procedures also resulted in a number of deaths. The Catholic Bishops of the region have demanded an explanation.[¹⁴] They have been joined by a large group of congressmen who have asked that the Peruvian Congress investigate these sterilizations (which number more than 100,000) in order to determine the medical and ethical conditions under which they were performed. These congressmen seek to reveal the full truth regarding violations of human rights carried out during this governmental campaign.[¹⁵]