5. TOWARD SEVERE IMBALANCES

From these causes, which we have briefly noted, disturbing consequences result. The youth ratio in these populations decreases markedly. Consequently, we see a reversal of the age pyramid. A small population of young adults must then secure the production of the country and support the large population of older, less active people who have a greater need of health care and medical services. Within the active population, some deep imbalances are occurring between the young and the somewhat older people, as the latter try to protect their jobs while younger generations find a reduced job market.

Nor should one forget the effect of an aging population on education. In order to provide for the  economic burden of the elderly, there is a great temptation to cut down on the money allocated for the training of new generations. This weakening of the educational system brings in turn a considerable risk: that of losing what might be called the communal memory. The transmission of cultural, scientific, technical, artistic, moral and religious common goods becomes thereby endangered. It also needs to be pointed out that, contrary to what is often asserted, unemployment itself is aggravated by the demographic decline.

The experts also foresee some other aspects of the current trend: the increase in the mean age of the population may markedly affect its psychological profile: "moroseness", the lack of intellectual, economic, scientific and social dynamism and reduced creativity--which seem already at work in some "aged" countries--would merely express the structure of the demographic pyramid of these countries.

Meanwhile, the ratio of the elderly who hold positions of responsibility in society increases. Under these conditions, in order to secure the healthy functioning of various social insurance programs (pensions, life insurance, health insurance, welfare system) the temptation becomes great to resort to euthanasia. It is well-known that euthanasia is already performed in various European countries.

Among the most obvious effects of demographic decline, we have to mention the violent imbalances, already foreseeable, between countries whose demographic age compositions are widely different. If, for example, we compare the age pyramid in countries such as France, Spain and Italy, on the one hand, with countries like Algeria, Morocco and Turkey on the other, we are impressed by the fact that they are precisely the reverse of one another. We can imagine the problems produced by such a contrast. Some of the difficulties that rich countries find today in effectively limiting clandestine immigration from poorer countries may be only the precursor of the problems which lie ahead.

It is urgent that public opinion and those responsible for public policy be informed of these trends. It is no less urgent to reject the fallacious data, ideological sophisms and even fabricated statistics that are invoked in presentations on these themes. In the field of demography, as in other fields of knowledge, the truth cannot be concealed forever. One cannot but rejoice to see that this truth is becoming more and more evident, as the Population Division of the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs did not hesitate to call for this meeting of experts on the theme of "below-replacement fertility". There is no reason not to reject the inaccuracies and lies which have been too often exploited in order to "justify" programs and policies totally incompatible with the respect due to fundamental human rights.